Meio & Mensagem

Como interpretar a recente escalada das big techs?


Blog do Pyr


Como interpretar a recente escalada das big techs?

É como o estouro avassalador de uma manada em expansão. O aumento no valor combinado das maiores empresas de tecnologia do Ocidente é de quase US $ 5 trilhões, e é, também, difícil de compreender seu impacto: isso é, aproximadamente, o equivalente a todo o mercado de ações da Alemanha, por exemplo.

27 de fevereiro de 2020 - 8h00

O valor acumulado dessas empresas em conjunto preocupa analistas econômicos e das bolsas. Esse estouro de uma manada de poucas empresas, mas poderosamente concentrando o valor de mercado que rivaliza ou supera o Produto Interno Bruto de muitas nações, não é algo trivial.

Como diz o artigo do The Economist, “Esse aumento nos preços das ações das gigantes da tecnologia levanta duas preocupações. Uma é se os investidores estão alimantando uma bolha especulativa. As cinco empresas, no valor de US $ 5,6 trilhões, representam quase um quinto do valor do índice s & p 500 das ações americanas. A última vez que o mercado estava tão concentrado foi há 20 anos, antes de um acidente que provocou uma desaceleração generalizada. A outra preocupação oposta é que os investidores podem estar certos. As avaliações superdimensionadas das grandes empresas de tecnologia sugerem que seus lucros dobrarão aproximadamente na próxima década, causando tremores econômicos muito maiores nos países ricos e uma concentração alarmante de poder político e econômico”.

Abaixo alguns trechos selecionados do texto do The Economist.

In 2018 a new word entered Silicon Valley’s lexicon: the “techlash”, or the risk of a consumer and regulatory revolt against big tech. Today that threat seems empty. Even as regulators discuss new rules and activists fret about the right to privacy, the shares of the five biggest American tech firms have been on a jaw-dropping bull run over the past 12 months, rising by 52%. The increase in the firms’ combined value, of almost $2trn, is hard to get your head round: it is roughly equivalent to Germany’s entire stockmarket. Four of the five—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft—are each now worth over $1trn. (Facebook is worth a mere $620bn.) For all the talk of a techlash, fund managers in Boston, London and Singapore have shrugged and moved on. Their calculus is that nothing can stop these firms, which are destined to earn untold riches.

The question of a bubble is a reasonable one. Tech cycles are an integral part of the modern economy. The 1980s saw a semiconductor boom. Then, in the 1990s, came pcs and the internet. Each cycle fades or ends in a bust.

In fact, at least for the biggest tech giants, today’s valuations are built on more solid foundations. Together, the five biggest firms have cranked out $178bn of cashflow after investment in the past 12 months (see Buttonwood). Their size has yet to slow their expansion: their median sales growth, of 17% in the latest quarter, is still as impressive as it was five years ago.

Consumers say they care about privacy but act as if they care much more about getting stuff, and preferably without having to pay for it in cash.

As big tech’s scope expands, more non-tech firms will find their profits dented and more workers will see their livelihoods disrupted, creating angry constituencies. One crude measure of scale is to look at global profits relative to American gdp. By this yardstick, Apple, which is expanding into services, is already roughly as big as Standard Oil and us Steel were in 1910, at the height of their powers. Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are set to reach the threshold within the next ten years.

Just when you thought platforms were back in fashion The $5.6trn market value of tech’s formidable five is a testament to some of the most commercially successful companies ever created. But it also assumes that they will get a lot bigger even as the world stands by and watches placidly. Until today, big tech has been largely unscathed. The bigger it becomes, the more reason there is to doubt this can continue.7


Leia a íntegra do artigo aqui.